By Jim Moore, KOIN political analyst, Pacific University professor
With four weeks to go until election day, the candidates meet in a town hall format. The economy has thrown the campaigns into different modes.
McCain is losing crucial states (new polls show Florida and Ohio going to Obama). Voters appear to be associating the Republican nominee with Republican President Bush, and voters are blaming McCain for the economy. He has tried taking on Obama’s character and experience in the past few days. McCain must figure out some way to win back voters who have decided to support Obama within the past two weeks.
Obama is beginning to act like an incumbent. With a growing lead in the electoral college and in the national polls, he is running a fairly conservative campaign—no big chances being taken. However, he is responding to the character issues being raised by McCain as they come up.
6:03 PM Tom Brokaw introduces ground rules, the candidates come in, and the first question comes from one of the undecided voters in the hall. It’s about the economy.
Obama: “This is the final verdict on” policies of the last eight years.
McCain: A bit of a pointed reference, he welcomes Sen. Obama “to a town hall meeting.” McCain had proposed a series of 10 town hall events this fall, but Obama declined to participate. On to his answer—a focus on the bad home loans that are supposed to be at the base of the economic crisis. A proposal that “is not Sen. Obama’s proposal, it is not Pres. Bush’s proposal.” This is a good start—differentiating himself from Pres. Bush.
Question #2. What is in the rescue package for regular people?
McCain: Sen. Obama was in the pocket of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in causing the crisis. And I sounded the alarm bell. There does not appear to be an answer to the question.
Obama: Spends a lot of time refuting McCain on Obama’s history with Freddie and Fannie. Also misses the question.
6:21 PM This is always an odd format. The candidates are either comfortable (as both are tonight) or not (remember George H. W. Bush checking his watch in 1992?). But we get questions asked face to face by our fellow voter, and the answers are aimed at a huge television audience somewhere else. This leads to a series of nice campaign statements and responses to the other candidate, but not much answering the actual concerns of the questioners.
Tom Brokaw keeps reminding the candidates that they set the rules for time—two minutes each for responses to the original question, then one minute for discussion. The candidates go very long on the discussion. But, Brokaw is a big part of the problem. He asks complex question with three parts about prioritizing all government spending—an answer in one minute? I don’t think so.
6:36 PM The series of economic questions allow each candidate to circle back to their respective positions.
McCain: clean up Washington, cut taxes, create jobs. Obama’s approach is seriously flawed.
Obama: clean up Washington (it’s the Republicans’ fault), cut taxes on the middle class (95% of Americans—which is a nice bell curve–middle class), create jobs. McCain’s approach is seriously flawed.
So far, lots of details, lots of differentiating between the two. No real issues for undecided voters to really hang onto. The debate, so far, provides confirmation for McCain’s and Obama’s supporters that they have made the right choices. That means that Obama’s ahead right now—McCain has not changed the conversation, a conversation that has seen his support erode in all those crucial battle ground states.
6:44 PM A question about green technology and climate change.
McCain: A great chance, which he takes, to distance himself from the Bush administration. Emphasis is on nuclear power. It is safe, McCain knows, because he has been on nuclear powered Navy ships, and he has not been harmed. Weird response. But the next part, about the nuclear refueling regimes in Japan and Europe is well taken.
Obama: Emphasis needs to be on alternative fuels—wind, solar, and others. Obama mentions that the US has 3% of world oil, but we use 25%. We will need non-oil alternatives.
Missing from both answers—economists and analysts pretty much agree that the US needs to reduce energy consumption. Such a reduction, however, is a total nonstarter in the US political world.
6:59 PM A long and detailed set of answers to the health care crisis. It amazes me that both campaigns think that by slinging details about tax credits and free market choices they can connect with people on health care. But they do.
Foreign policy comes up for the first time.
McCain: I have the judgment and maturity to know when the US ought to intervene to deal with international problems. America is a force for good in the world. Obama was wrong about the surge, wrong about Georgia and Russia, and we cannot afford on the job training in national security.
Obama: McCain is right. I don’t understand—why we invaded Iraq instead of going after al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Iraq has put an enormous strain on our troops—who Obama honors—and our budget. Agrees with McCain that America is a force for good in the world. But with constrained resources, we cannot pursue “good” policies, e.g. stopping genocide in Darfur.
Brokaw asks about the “Obama doctrine” and the “McCain doctrine.” Obama would militarily intervene in case of genocide. McCain calls for victory in Iraq and making the hard choices. McCain notes that he opposed Ronald Reagan on Lebanon in the early 1980s.
7:14 PM An entertaining back and forth over the nature of diplomacy.
McCain criticized Obama for saying that he would tell Pakistan that he would go across Pakistan’s borders after al Qaeda. That’s not what Teddy Roosevelt (speak softly and carry a big stick) would do. That’s not speaking softly.
Obama comes back with McCain’s high jinks of singing “Bomb, bomb Iran” and threatening North Korea with annihilation. That’s not speaking softly either.
As in the first debate, the nature of the questions and the expertise of the candidates makes US foreign policy seem like a series of military issues. That misses the vast majority of our foreign policy—economics, economics, economics.
McCain on Russia: there will not be a new cold war. But, he looked into Putin’s eyes and saw “a K and a G and a B.” A contrast to Bush’s view of a friend he could do business with in 2001. US moral suasion needs to be applied to let Russia know its boundaries.
Obama on Russia: the resurgence is one of the most important issues in the next president’s term. I agree with McCain, but we need more than moral support, we need to work directly with the countries around Russia. We need to anticipate problems instead of just reacting to them.
7:28 PM A question about Iran attacking Israel—would the US react quickly or only with UN Security Council authorization?
Both are strong in supporting Israel and reacting to Iran.
Missing from both answers? Reality. Israel would respond more quickly than the US. And if Iran used a nuclear weapon, then Israel would use at least one from its estimated arsenal of 100 nuclear weapons.
The debate comes to an end.
Analysis: no game changers here.
McCain is getting more presidential with each debate. He is articulate, relatively clear, and speaks good political talk.
McCain missed an opportunity to change the trajectory of the campaign. That means that he will stick with bringing up Obama’s character on the trail. However, that means that the economy will continue to dominate. McCain differentiated himself from Pres. Bush three times, by my count. That is not enough. In the convention McCain was fearless about taking on Republicans and Democrats both. Without that type of rhetoric, McCain remains tied to Bush in voters’ minds.
Obama countered everything McCain brought up and appeared as presidential as McCain. He did not need to change the tenor of the campaign, and he did not. He only related McCain to Bush’s policies a few times. He knows that the electorate has already internalized this particular framework to understand the presidential contest.
Advantage Obama in the overall scheme of the election.
