Why I finally called the Senate Race for Merkley

By Jim Moore, KOIN political analyst, Pacific University professor

I feel confident that Merkley will win by 25,000 to 50,000 votes.

At about 6:00 on Wednesday 5 November, Multnomah County and Lane county updated their numbers on the Smith-Merkley race.

When I got the new numbers, I did some quick math. I made an estimate of the number of ballots still to be counted in each county, then I applied the proportion that Merkley and Smith had received in all the counted ballots for each county to the estimated number still to go. From that I got estimates of the final tally in each county, and I added those numbers to the current totals.

                                    Smith                                   Merkley

Current total             693,526                               698,630

Counties with outstanding ballots—assuming an 80% turnout (statewide is 83% right now), and the estimate of the number still to be counted:

Clackamas                             46,535

Jackson                                  12,500

Lane                                       24,400

Marion                                   23,600

Multnomah                         108,700

All other counties have completed their counts.

Applying the percentages already voted in each county for Smith and Merkley to the estimate of ballots still to be counted:

                                    Smith                                   Merkley

Clackamas                 22,337                                     21,871

Jackson                        6,250                                     5,500

Lane                             9,272                                     14,152

Marion                       12,272                                       9,676

Multnomah                31,523                                    72,829

Adding together the estimates with the current vote totals:

                                    Smith                                   Merkley

                                    ≈775,000                         ≈822,000

Given the vagaries of voter turnout in different counties, and the possibility that these last votes might not break exactly the same way as the already counted votes in each county, I feel confident that Merkley will win by 25,000 to 50,000 votes.