
John Cannon has been financing big real estate loans for $25
billion-asset Capmark Finance Inc. of Horsham and its predecessors
since 1985, and he’s never seen business this slow.
“There’s nothing being bought and sold,” Cannon told me by phone
from the vast Virginia headquarters of government-controlled home
lender Freddie Mac, one of the few outfits still pumping millions into
buildings.
Capmark financed $1.5 billion in apartment deals during the first
half of the year, down by half since early 2008. Almost all this year’s
lending was refinancing loans, funded by Freddie and Fannie Mae, and
the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
“They’re the only viable lenders in U.S. commercial real estate
right now,” and all they do is residential real estate, not offices or
industry, Cannon said.
He’s seen slow markets before. The early 1990s, when the savings
banks failed. But that “was a supply issue. You saw a lot of empty
buildings. Now it’s a liquidity issue.” Banks aren’t lending.

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He’s hoping things have hit bottom. Fannie and Freddie tightened
credit sharply last year. Lately, they aren’t requiring quite so many
escrow payments, Cannon said hopefully. “Terms are getting looser.
Spreads are coming down.”
It’s not that loan rates have fallen. It’s the spread between what
money costs and what Fannie and Freddie charge that tells the story,
according to Cannon:
Back in the mid-2000s, loans were approved at less than 1 percent
above the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate. That zoomed to 3.5 to 4
percent above the benchmark during last fall’s credit crisis, after the
Bush administration took control of Fannie and Freddie. Now it’s around
2 percent, Cannon says.
But banks still aren’t coming back into the market. It’s not just
that they’re shy. There’s also “the disconnect between buyers’ and
sellers’ expectations,” Cannon told me. “Guys bought a building five
years ago for $10 million. They don’t want to sell for $8 million.”
NJ to PA
Archer Daniels Midland Co., Decatur, Ill., says it’s closing its
Glassboro cocoa plant and ending jobs for 53 workers there. The work is
moving to ADM’s new 500,000-square foot plant in Hazleton, says
spokesman Roman Blahoski.
Bernanke or Summers?
Democrats in Congress and the Obama White House are plotting to remove
Federal Reserve Chairman Benjamin Bernanke and replace him with Obama’s
chief economic adviser, Larry Summers, at the end of his term next
year, writes veteran bank analyst Richard X. Bove of Connecticut-based
Rochdale Securities.
Summers is the brainy Main Line native, Harvard economist, and
ex-Treasury Secretary who’s trying to re-regulate the financial
institutions he helped deregulate under President Bill Clinton, setting
the stage for the current mess.
Bernanke or Summers - what’s the difference? “Mr. Bernanke has
demonstrated a willingness to act to defend both the economy and the
financial system. Conversely, Mr. Summers has written the bulk of the
proposals to regulate the financial industry,” which Bove says “would
dramatically restrict fund flow to the economy” and kill the recovery
like the government did when it tightened credit rules too soon in
1937. (But when’s the right time?)
Bove credits Bernanke, ex-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and FDIC
chief Sheila Bair with “bold, innovative action” that salvaged the
banks and prevented a full U.S. takeover. Bush and Obama at that time
“did nothing.” Congress was “the proverbial deer in the headlights.”
Yet “the same people who were incapable of acting when there was a
clear need for action will now make the decision as to whether the man
who helped save the system should be removed.”
Bernanke is set to testify before the House banking committee next
Tuesday. Expect Fed critics to ask how he’ll reverse the scary growth
in the money supply without stalling the economy.